IUCN Red List and Species Distribution Models as tools for the conservation of poorly known species: a case study of endemic plants Micromeria serbaliana and Veronica kaiseri in South Sinai, Egypt

• Published in: Kew bulletin 2021-09, Vol.76 (3), p.477-496
• Main Authors: Omar, Karim, Elgamal, Ibrahim
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Biomedical and Life Sciences; Life Sciences; Original Article; Plant Ecology; Plant Sciences; Plant Systematics/Taxonomy/Biogeography
• ISSN: 0075-5974; 1874-933X
• DOI: 10.1007/s12225-021-09953-4

Having valid and up-to-date information on the ecological and conservation status of threatened species is one of the most important elements in the establishment of an effective conservation programme. Micromena serbaliana and Veronica kauen are endemic perennial plants in the St Catherine Protected Area (SCPA), South Sinai, Egypt. It should be noted that both species have not been recorded since 1998. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the ecological and conservation status of the two species by: i) verifying their presence in the field; (ii) determining the current ecological and conservation status through an IUCN Red List Assessment; and (iii) identifying potentially suitable habitat by using the Species Distribution Model (SDM) as a tool to support Red List assessment. Extensive field surveys were carried out from March to September 2017 to determine the target species distribution, population characteristics, habitat, ecology, and threats. The results of these surveys provided great news, the two species were recorded in 14 sites, most of which are not historic (ten sites for M. serbaliana and five sites for V. kaiseri), in a very small restricted area of high mountains. The Extent of Occurrence (EOO) was 65.8 km2 for M. serbaliana and 108.4 km² for V. kauen. The population sizes were very small, scattered, and fragmented. SDMs found that the potential suitable habitats for both species are concentrated in high mountain areas in the Middle North part of SCPA. A total of 20.4 km2 were predicted to have a high probability that M. serbaliana is present, whereas 68.6 km2 were predicted to have a high probability that V. kaisen is present. SDMs were highly efficient in predicting the suitable habitat and in estimating EOO, and these models were therefore able to contribute to determining the extinction risk of the two species. Based on the assessed distributions and threats to the populations of M. serbaliana and V. kauen, we predict that both species have an Endangered status according to IUCN Red List Categories and criteria. Many threats have been detected that have a strong and noticeable impact on the target plants in the field, such as grazing and drought, and this calls for the establishment of an urgent conservation program. In situ (through recovery) and ex situ (through seed collection and storage, as well as awareness raising) conservation practices are recommended.