Path dependencies in US agriculture: Regional factors of diversification

• Published in: Agriculture, ecosystems & environment ecosystems & environment, 2022-08, Vol.333, p.107957, Article 107957
• Main Authors: Spangler, Kaitlyn, Schumacher, Britta L., Bean, Brennan, Burchfield, Emily K.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Agriculture; Diversification; Path dependency; Region; United States
• ISSN: 0167-8809; 1873-2305
• DOI: 10.1016/j.agee.2022.107957

Concerns of declining agrobiodiversity and widening socioeconomic inequities in United States (US) agriculture highlight the critical need for systemic change. Despite surmounting evidence of the field and landscape scale benefits of diversifying agricultural systems, path dependencies of US agriculture present barriers to such diversification pathways. This study aims to elucidate path dependencies of agricultural landscapes that (dis)incentivize crop diversification at the regional scale through two main research questions: 1) what are the biophysical and socioecological factors most predictive of agricultural diversity across the US; and 2) how do these factors vary regionally? Using a novel panel dataset constructed from several open-source databases, we use random forest (RF) permutation variable importance measures to identify and compare the factors most predictive of county-level crop diversity across nine US regions. Our results show that climate, land use norms, and farm inputs are consistently the most important categories for predicting agricultural diversity across regions; however, variability exists in the relative regional importance of variables within these categories. Thus, factors most strongly predictive of agricultural diversity across US landscapes operate distinctly at a regional level, emphasizing the need to consider multiple scales of influence. These distinct regional relationships contribute to path dependencies that present resistance to enhancing agricultural diversity. By more appropriately addressing the regional factors of US agricultural landscapes the constrain agricultural diversification, with an eye towards future cropscapes, we can shift current path dependencies toward a more resilient and adaptive US agricultural future. •Climate, land use norms, and farm inputs most strongly predict regional diversity.•Regional scale factors influence US agricultural path dependencies.•Reliance on chemical and fertilizer use does not promote diversification.