Bioeconomic modeling of on-growing Caribbean spiny lobster in Florida

• Published in: Aquaculture 2025-02, Vol.596, p.741881, Article 741881
• Main Authors: Garlock, Taryn, Asche, Frank, Butler, Casey B., Larkin, Sherry, Matthews, Thomas R., Ross, Erica
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Aquaculture; Bioeconomics; On-growing; Panulirus argus
• ISSN: 0044-8486
• DOI: 10.1016/j.aquaculture.2024.741881

The Caribbean spiny lobster fishery in Florida has recently shifted from supplying frozen tails in the domestic market to a higher value live export market, primarily in China. The fishery's seasonal landing pattern limits supply during periods of high demand and high price, resulting in lost revenue. In addition, about 25 % of lobster landings are unsuitable for the live export market. Of these lobsters, approximately 50 % are molting, and short-term live storage could make them viable for live export after molting is complete. We developed a bioeconomic model to examine the economic feasibility of on-growing wild-caught lobsters for sale later in the season when demand and price are higher. We also used the model to examine the feasibility and profitability of short-term aquaculture-based storage of molting lobsters for later sale in the live export market. The results suggest evidence of investment feasibility. Annual net returns and net present value to perpetuity were positive in all scenarios, but net returns were 359–1055 % higher in short-term storage of molting lobsters. Net present values to perpetuity ranged from $898,744 to $5,106,181. Cost of production ($/kg) ranged from $21.29 to $29.07, with the lowest cost for short-term storage of molting lobsters; however, this was also the most capital-intensive scenario, with costs more than five times that of the other scenarios. Risk analysis showed variations in stocking density, sale price, and survival of spiny lobsters were the major contributors to economic risk in longer-term on-growing scenarios, whereas sale price and input price were the major contributors in short-term storage of lobsters. •Supply from the U.S. spiny lobster fishery is misaligned with demand in the live market.•On-growing aquaculture provides an opportunity to increase sales during periods of high demand.•Our bioeconomic analysis indicates investment feasibility, but that ongrowing is capital-intensive.•Volatility in global lobster prices is a major contributor to economic risk.