Plate tectonic modelling and the energy transition

• Published in: Earth-science reviews 2022-11, Vol.234, p.104227, Article 104227
• Main Authors: Wrobel-Daveau, Jean-Christophe, Nicoll, Graeme, Tetley, Michael G., Gréselle, Benjamin, Perez-Diaz, Lucia, Davies, Andrew, Eglington, Bruce M.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Earth system science; Energy transition; Mineral exploration; Plate tectonics
• ISSN: 0012-8252; 1872-6828
• DOI: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.104227

The formulation of plate tectonic theory and its application to modelling the motion of lithospheric units on a sphere using Euler rotations has been a foundational advance for 20th century geosciences. Its inception has supported significant industry funded research, better understanding and visualisation of geological concepts, and underpinned exploration for resources in the energy sector since the 1970's. As a direct result of the development of modern computing infrastructure and methodology, significant progress in tectonic modelling approaches have occurred since the 1980's, today allowing for sophisticated predictions of both the time-dependent kinematics and geodynamics of the paleo Earth. For example, in an exploration context, modern coupled paleo Earth system science models combining regional geology, tectonics, elevation, bathymetric, climate, drainage systems and geophysical data are capable of predicting occurrences of specific rock facies, mineralization systems and natural resources in relation to past physio-chemical settings. Critically, these predictions minimize uncertainties, allowing for more accurate modelling and de-risking of subsurface targets, each of which are becoming increasingly important considerations in supporting the growing resource demands of the current energy transition. The transition to an electricity-powered society supplied by low carbon energy sources is one of the changes needed to mitigate the impact of climate change. In order to deliver on these challenges that have been agreed and set by international accords (e.g., Paris agreement, COP26), there is already a significant shift of focus within hydrocarbon exploration away from oil towards both gas and geological storage. Additionally, in the coming decades there will also be a significant increase in exploration for “critical minerals” as demand grows. This, combined with a progressive decrease in the grade of ore extracted from long-operating, large mines and the decrease of new, large-scale mineral deposit discoveries at or near the surface, has created an unprecedented challenge upon the mineral industry in terms of both exploration and production. With new approaches to mineral exploration, such as mineral systems thinking, which links the formation of many mineral resources to a geodynamic setting, plate models are now more important than ever. The transfer of integrated plate tectonic and Earth system modelling mindsets, workflows and techniques which