Comparative study of construction land development suitability assessment: Insights from multiple models and driving forces

• Published in: Environmental impact assessment review 2024-07, Vol.107, p.107574, Article 107574
• Main Authors: Zhang, Zhong, Gong, Jian, Li, Jingye, Yang, Jianxin, Chen, Guang, Ren, Yingjian, Plaza, Antonio
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Construction land development suitability; Driving force analysis; Model comparison; PLUS model; Probabilistic statistical models; Wuhan
• ISSN: 0195-9255
• DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2024.107574

Construction land development suitability (CLDS) assessment holds paramount importance in contemporary urban planning and management. Previous CLDS studies have faced challenges such as insufficient evaluation indicators, model complexity, and limited interpretability. To address these gaps, this study applies three simplistic yet mature models from the field of geological hazard assessment - Weight of Evidence (WOE), Information Value (IV), and Frequency Ratio (FR) - to evaluate the CLDS in Wuhan, China, and examine their feasibility. In parallel, a comparative analysis with the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model was conducted. The WOE, IV, and FR models demonstrate a gradual decrease in CLDS from the city center and the Yangtze and Han rivers towards the periphery. Conversely, the PLUS model indicates the highest suitability around the city's development boundaries, followed by the city center, with suburbs displaying lower suitability. In terms of accuracy, the PLUS model's CARS module outperforms others, particularly for micro-level urban expansion simulations. The IV and WOE models follow closely, manifesting a preference for macro-level urban planning. Additionally, this study pinpoints key drivers influencing CLDS, notably population density, distance to social service Points of Interest (POI) and proximity to road networks. The cross-validation of the WOE, IV, and FR models underscores their reliability, with their straightforward principles positioning them as valuable tools in urban development planning. This comparative study validates the application of geological hazard models in urban contexts and diversifies CLDS assessment methodologies. [Display omitted] •Transplantation and Application of Geological Hazard Models.•Comprehensive Indicator System Incorporating Multivariate Driving Factors.•Multi-Model Assessment of Construction Land Development Suitability.•Spatial Prediction of Construction Land under Quantity Constraints.