A novel wind power forecasting system integrating time series refining, nonlinear multi-objective optimized deep learning and linear error correction

• Published in: Energy conversion and management 2024-01, Vol.299, p.117818, Article 117818
• Main Authors: Wang, Jianzhou, Qian, Yuansheng, Zhang, Linyue, Wang, Kang, Zhang, Haipeng
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: administrative management; algorithms; autumn; China; energy conversion; prediction; regression analysis; spring; summer; time series analysis; uncertainty; wind power; winter
• ISSN: 0196-8904
• DOI: 10.1016/j.enconman.2023.117818

Wind power prediction is crucial for successfully integrating large-scale wind energy with the grid and achieving a carbon-neutral energy mix. However, previous studies encountered challenges to noise reduction, information extraction, error handling, and uncertainty estimation. To address these limitations, this study proposed a novel wind power forecasting system, systematically enhancing forecasting capability by refining the raw time series using horizontal denoising and vertical granulation methods, utilizing a bidirectional deep learning model for capturing nonlinear features and optimizing its core hyperparameters with a newly developed multi-objective enhanced version of metaheuristic algorithm to achieve Pareto optimal solutions, employing the traditional statistical approach for residual linear feature extraction from error series and effective correction, and integrating quantile regression for interval prediction. The predictive performance was evaluated based on wind power, speed, and direction data from two different countries, the system yielded correlation coefficients of 0.9796, 0.9943, 0.9795, and 0.9780 in spring, summer, autumn and winter for China, and 0.9950 for Turkey, demonstrating its pronounced advantages over comparative models. Overall, the proposed system contributes to the advancement of wind-power prediction theory and holds substantial potential for practical applications.