Predicting the response of heating and cooling demands of residential buildings with various thermal performances in China to climate change

• Published in: Energy (Oxford) 2023-04, Vol.269, p.126789, Article 126789
• Main Authors: Xiong, Jie, Guo, Siyue, Wu, Yi, Yan, Da, Xiao, Chan, Lu, Xi
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Building energy efficiency; Building simulations; Carbon neutrality; Climate change; Heating and cooling demands
• ISSN: 0360-5442
• DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2023.126789

Climate change will continuously impact building heating and cooling demands. Therefore, it is essential to characterise the varying future heating and cooling demands, which will help energy planning and avoid the lock-in effect of infrastructure. In this study, future meteorological data for building simulations were generated using global climate models under different shared socioeconomic pathways and were used in a large number of simulations by DeST to see the impacts on heating and cooling loads with different building performance and occupancy modes. Harbin, Beijing, Chongqing, Guangzhou, and Kunming were selected to exemplify the impacts on different climate zones. The future heating demand will decline evidently where the heating demand dominates, like Harbin, Beijing and Chongqing. For areas with a predominant cooling demand, like Guangzhou and Chongqing, the future cooling demand will increase significantly. As for enhanced building thermal performance, the annual heating and cooling demand are both effectively reduced, and the impacts of climate change are gradually diminishing. It is estimated that by 2060, the total energy consumption in urban residential buildings will be 5% higher considering the effect of climate change, and the percentage of cooling energy use will increase from 14% to 20%, resulting in higher importance of cooling energy sufficiency. •Weather data for building simulations is generated based on a global climate model.•DeST run in batches for forecasting future heating/cooling demand to 2100.•Climate change and building performance uplift both account for changing demand.•Impact of climate change on added cooling demand surpasses reduced heating demand.•Promoting energy efficiency effectively reduces heating/cooling energy consumption.