An online long-term load forecasting method: Hierarchical highway network based on crisscross feature collaboration

• Published in: Energy (Oxford) 2024-07, Vol.299, p.131459, Article 131459
• Main Authors: Fan, Jingmin, Zhong, Mingwei, Guan, Yuanpeng, Yi, Siqi, Xu, Cancheng, Zhai, Yanpeng, Zhou, Yongwang
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Crisscross feature collaboration; Hierarchical highway network; Online long-term load forecasting; Similar day matching; Unconventional load variation identification
• ISSN: 0360-5442
• DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2024.131459

In order to ensure the efficient operation of the power system, accurate online load forecasting is necessary. Existing studies face challenges in addressing unconventional load changes in long-term load forecasting (LTLF) and are unsuitable for online forecasting due to their reliance on measured Forecast Day Data (FDD). The development of a model independent of prior knowledge is essential to improve the interpretability and applicability of load forecasting methods. In this study, a hybrid model based on Crisscross Feature Collaboration (CFC) and Hierarchical Highway Network (HHN) is introduced. During the horizontal feature learning, the HHN is employed to learn temporal information from annual load curves across multiple time scales, reducing time complexity in LTLF. Subsequently, the prediction results of various time scales are combined to approximate FDD, addressing data leakage problems. In the vertical feature matching phase, the similar day data are screened by the multi-modal information of FDD and the Toeplitz Inverse Covariance Based Clustering (TICC) method, enabling the model to be independent of prior knowledge. Finally, through the HHN, all similar day data are utilized to reconstruct the forecasting load curve. In LTLF, the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of the proposed model reduces by 94.35 %, 85.74 %, 84.02 %, 90.72 %, 85.17 % and 87.76 % respectively in different scenarios compared to the direct forecasting. This signifies the effectiveness of our model in predicting the unconventional load change and achieving accurate online LTLF.