The transition to electrified vehicles: Evaluating the labor demand of manufacturing conventional versus battery electric vehicle powertrains

• Published in: Energy policy 2024-05, Vol.188, p.114064, Article 114064
• Main Authors: Cotterman, Turner, Fuchs, Erica R.H., Whitefoot, Kate S., Combemale, Christophe
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Manufacturing labor demand; Powertrain system; Process-based cost modeling; Vehicle electrification
• ISSN: 0301-4215; 1873-6777
• DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114064

The shift from traditional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) to electric vehicles (EVs) has raised concerns about displacement of automotive manufacturing labor. Prior studies have mixed findings, and have been hindered by a lack of shop floor-level data on the labor hours required for ICEV and EV manufacturing. We collect detailed data from leading automotive manufacturers on the production process steps and labor inputs required to build key ICEV and battery electric vehicle (BEV) powertrain components. Our novel data set covers 252 process steps, with data on a further 78 process steps from the existing literature. We build a production process model that estimates the labor hours required to produce ICEV and BEV powertrain components at different production volumes and labor efficiency levels. We find that, accounting for production and assembly of battery packs, the labor intensity required for the manufacturing of BEV powertrain components is larger than for ICEV powertrain components. This difference in labor intensity holds even when comparing the highest-efficiency estimates for BEV production with the lowest efficiency-estimates for ICEVs. This finding depends on our shop-floor operations modeling approach and could not be derived from recent approaches focusing on part counts. Our results imply that vehicle electrification could lead to more automotive manufacturing jobs, at least in the short- to medium-term. While there are potential jobs to support transitions for incumbent automotive workers, the feasibility of these transitions will depend on geographic co-location of new battery production capacity with current ICEV production sites, and on matching between the skills of the automotive workforce and the demands of new EV jobs. •Vehicle electrification may lead to more manufacturing worker-hours per vehicle produced.•EV powertrain manufacturing has sufficient scale to absorb displaced ICEV powertrain production workers.•Battery manufacturing will be a primary driver of EV employment opportunities.•The feasibility of a wage-sustaining transition will depend on targeted policy support.