Co-benefits of air pollution control and climate change mitigation strategies in Pakistan

• Published in: Environmental science & policy 2022-07, Vol.133, p.31-43
• Main Authors: Mir, Kaleem Anwar, Purohit, Pallav, Cail, Sylvain, Kim, Seungdo
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Air pollution; Climate change; Co-benefits; Emission control cost; Premature mortality; Sustainable development
• ISSN: 1462-9011; 1873-6416
• DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2022.03.008

Pakistan’s urban air pollution is among the world's worst, wreaking havoc on public health and the economy. Although the country’s environmental protection act and the climate change act recognize the dual challenges of air pollution and climate change, it lacks an integrated national strategy to manage both simultaneously. Based on simulations with the GAINS model (an integrated assessment model) through soft coupling with the EnerNEO Pakistan model (an energy-economic model), we assess the benefits of climate policies and air pollution control measures on air quality and public health for Pakistan under the baseline and alternative scenarios. Our results reveal that Pakistan's current air pollution control measures are insufficient to meet the country's air quality standards under the baseline scenario. Implementing sustainable development strategies will reduce nationwide PM2.5-related mortalities by 24% in 2050 compared to the baseline. While advanced control measures have the potential to improve air quality and human health in Pakistan, when combined with national sustainable development strategies, they have the potential to halve greenhouse gas emissions (implementing SDG 13 indicator on climate action) and save on emission control costs approximately by a quarter (0.32% of GDP) by 2050. This appears to be a significant co-benefit in terms of air quality (environmental), health (social), and cost (economic), implying that Pakistan's future policymaking should prioritize cost-effective co-control of air pollution and greenhouse gases. [Display omitted] •We studied air quality and health co-benefits under alternative policy scenarios.•Current legislations would result in a 1.5-fold rise in PM2.5 levels by 2050.•Stringent air pollution control measures would cut PM2.5 levels in half by 2050.•PM2.5 mortalities would be decreased by 24% in a sustainable development scenario.•Sustainable development policies would further reduce GHG emissions by 53%.