Betting against analyst target price

Using a robust measure that captures the market’s reaction to analysts’ target price releases, we show that the initial stock price reaction corresponds to target prices, but the price drifts in the opposite direction for a long period, resulting in negative cross-sectional predictability. In the U....

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of financial markets (Amsterdam, Netherlands) Netherlands), 2022-06, Vol.59, p.100677, Article 100677
Main Authors: Han, Chulwoo, Kang, Jangkoo, Kim, Sun Yung
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Discount rate
Mispricing
Net number of optimistic analysts (NOA)
Target price
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Summary:Using a robust measure that captures the market’s reaction to analysts’ target price releases, we show that the initial stock price reaction corresponds to target prices, but the price drifts in the opposite direction for a long period, resulting in negative cross-sectional predictability. In the U.S. market from 1999 to 2020, the derived long-short portfolio generates a significant one-month ahead return of 0.75% and 10.00% over a year and possesses favorable features: its profit is higher among large and liquid stocks, originates from long positions, and lasts long. Empirical evidence suggests that the return reversal is caused by both discount rate shifts and mispricing correction following target price releases. •We develop a measure that captures the market’s reaction to analysts’ target prices.•Stock prices drift opposite to target prices causing a return reversal.•The anomaly portfolio earns a significant return over a long period.•The return reversal is caused by both discount rate shifts and mispricing correction.
ISSN:1386-4181
1878-576X
DOI:10.1016/j.finmar.2021.100677