Climate futures and development pathways: A journey from terrorism to tourism in the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa Province of Pakistan

• Published in: Futures : the journal of policy, planning and futures studies planning and futures studies, 2024-04, Vol.158, p.103344, Article 103344
• Main Authors: Muzamil, Muhammad Rafay, Boruff, Bryan, Shahbaz, Babar, Khan, Nasir Abbas, Sattar, Rao Sabir, Hafeez, Muhammad
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Climate; Co-production; Conflict; Development; Drivers of change; Scenarios
• ISSN: 0016-3287; 1873-6378
• DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103344

Achieving equitable development that supports climate mitigation in an uncertain future remains a daunting task, particularly for post-conflict societies. In this paper, we present results from a local stakeholder participatory scenario workshop investigating emerging priorities for anticipatory action, with respect to future climate impacts, in the vulnerable conflict-affected Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa Province of Pakistan. Importantly, our findings reveal that stakeholders were less focused on addressing climate impacts, and more interested in local development initiatives to enhance tourism offerings and the regional national park network. The novelty of our work lies in the use of participatory scenarios to both initiate a process of healing and provide a forum for the co-production of future narratives focused on sustainable and inclusive development. However, this first involves mending the social fabric that ties individuals and communities together in an inclusive and informed way. As such, our work adds to the scholarship of environmental peacebuilding, creating a local context-specific knowledge base using a bottom-up approach to understand a shared future. The case study presented here highlights the perspectives of policymakers from the global south and brings local stakeholders together in a space where top-down management approaches often dominate. •Using scenarios is only one step towards providing an opportunity for healing by co-producing narratives of a local future.•Our work reflects on ways to avoid future conflict and other undesirable prospects.•Our findings highlight the need to reflect on technocratic versus political approaches to address the issue of climate change.•We add to the scholarship of environmental peacebuilding and create a localised and context-specific knowledge.•We bring stakeholders together in a space where top-down management approaches dominate in policymaking.