TECX-TCN: Prediction of ionospheric total electron content at different latitudes in China based on XGBoost algorithm and temporal convolution network

• Published in: Journal of atmospheric and solar-terrestrial physics 2023-08, Vol.249, p.106091, Article 106091
• Main Authors: Zhao, Jumin, Ren, Bohua, Wu, Fanming, Liu, Hongyu, Li, Gaofei, Li, Dengao
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Different latitudes in China; Ionospheric delay error; TCN; Total electron content; XGBoost
• ISSN: 1364-6826; 1879-1824
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jastp.2023.106091

The correction of ionospheric delay error through the estimation of ionospheric total electron content (TEC) parameters is very important for the accuracy and rapid convergence of precise point positioning (PPP), especially for single frequency PPP position and double frequency undifferenced and uncombined PPP models. This paper studies the prediction method of ionospheric TEC by analyzing various influencing factors. Firstly, considering the influence of latitude, the TEC values of different observation stations in China at middle and low latitudes are used for research. Secondly, due to the influence of solar storms, the years with and without solar storms are selected for comparative study. At the same time, the moving average value of TEC and the lag value of each solar and geomagnetic index are also added. Because the influence of each feature on ionospheric TEC is not clear, the importance score of each feature is obtained according to the EXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm to establish a reasonable feature combination. Then, the temporal convolution network (TCN) is used to train according to data of the collected solar cycle and predict data for the next year. Through experiments, the prediction model with feature selection can obtain higher prediction accuracy, the error reaches ∼2TECU at middle latitude region and ∼3 TECU at low latitude region. Finally, compared with other algorithms, our ionospheric TEC prediction algorithm based on XGBoost and TCN (TECX-TCN) significantly has better performance. When the solar activity is low, its RMSE can reach ∼2.5TECU, the correlation coefficient can reach ∼0.9, and even in the low latitude area with high solar activity, its RMSE can reach ∼5TECU, the correlation coefficient can reach ∼0.85. •This paper studies the prediction method of ionospheric TEC by analyzing various influencing factors.•Firstly, considering the influence of latitude, the TEC values of different observation stations in China at middle and low latitudes are used for research.•Secondly, due to the influence of solar storms, the years with and without solar storms are selected for comparative study.•At the same time, the moving average value of TEC and the lag value of each solar and geomagnetic index are also added.•Because the influence of each feature on ionospheric TEC is not clear, the importance score of each feature is obtained according to the EXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm to establish a reasonable featu