Challenges towards carbon dioxide emissions peak under in-depth socioeconomic transition in China: Insights from Shanghai

• Published in: Journal of cleaner production 2020-02, Vol.247, p.119083, Article 119083
• Main Authors: Liu, Shangwei, Tian, Xin, Xiong, Yiling, Zhang, Yan, Tanikawa, Hiroki
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: China; CO2 emissions; Input-output analysis; Peaking target; Socioeconomic transition
• ISSN: 0959-6526; 1879-1786
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.119083

Chinese government committed to peak its CO2 emissions before 2030, while managing its in-depth socioeconomic transition to a slower but more balanced growth. Features of such a transition include rising high-tech manufacturing and services as well as fast-growing household consumption, which both have implications for China’s CO2 emissions peak. In this study, we focus on analyzing the case of Shanghai, a leading city in China, for its experience of realizing CO2 emission stagnation during in-depth socioeconomic transition process. We find that emerging high-tech manufacturing and services in Shanghai, although to some extent having replaced carbon-intensive heavy industries, have generated additional CO2 emissions of respectively 364.7 Mt and 308.6 Mt, mainly through their supply chains during the 2007–2012 time period. We also find that soaring urban household consumption induced huge CO2 emissions, including 251.0 Mt embodied emissions in producing goods and services for urban residents, and additional CO2 emissions associated with massive investment in urban infrastructure and buildings from 2007 to 2012. The challenges we identified from Shanghai’s real case provide useful insights for China to peak its CO2 emissions under its in-depth socioeconomic transition. •Shanghai’s Scope 1 CO2 emissions have stagnated since 2007.•The stagnation of Shanghai’s CO2 emissions is a result of slowing but balanced growth.•Emerging high-tech manufacturing and services induced huge CO2 emissions, especially through their supply chains.•Soaring urban household consumption and its related investment are rising sources of CO2 emissions in the new stage.