Parameterizing large constellation post-mission disposal success to predict the impact to future space environment

• Published in: Journal of space safety engineering 2020-09, Vol.7 (3), p.171-177
• Main Authors: Henning, G.A., Sorge, M.E., Peterson, G.E., Jenkin, A.B., Mains, D., McVey, J.P.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• ISSN: 2468-8967; 2468-8967
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jsse.2020.07.025

Future large constellations are being proposed that may include hundreds to thousands of satellites, spread across multiple orbit altitudes in LEO, some of which are already highly populated. The long-term hazard to the safe operational space environment's utility posed by these new constellations is not fully understood. The magnitude of debris generated via explosions and collisions with other space objects will be significantly influenced by the constellation characteristics, and the post-mission disposal (PMD) policy followed by these satellite operators. This study models the future orbital environment for debris based on different levels and types of space activity and PMD success rates. The future constellation model (FCM) utilized in the study consists of numerous constellations representative of proposed systems. These constellations manifest a wide range of characteristics relevant to their impact on the future debris environment, including mission and disposal orbits, satellite counts, masses, and areas. The PMD success rate is varied across scenarios from 70% to 100%. Unsuccessfully disposed satellites are modeled to either remain in their operational orbit after end-of-life or along the ascent or disposal paths. Given the satellite count, size, mass, and replenishment cadence of each constellation, and varying PMD success rate, each scenario is parameterized to simple undisposed object metrics. By parameterizing in this way, the environment impact of scenarios with different satellite counts and physical characteristics are compared on a normalized plot.