Forecasting oil futures market volatility in a financialized world: Why speculative activities matter

We analyze the relation between volatility and speculative activities in the crude oil futures market and provide short-term forecasts accordingly. By incorporating trading volume and opening interest (speculative ratio) into the volatility dynamics, we document the subtle interaction between the tw...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:The North American journal of economics and finance 2020-11, Vol.54, p.100861, Article 100861
Main Authors: Chan, Kam C., Chan, Leo H., Nguyen, Chi M.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Oil futures
Speculative ratio
Volatility forecasts
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Summary:We analyze the relation between volatility and speculative activities in the crude oil futures market and provide short-term forecasts accordingly. By incorporating trading volume and opening interest (speculative ratio) into the volatility dynamics, we document the subtle interaction between the two measures of which the volatility-averse behavior of speculative activities plays a considerable role in the market. Moreover, by accounting for structural changes, we find significant evidence that this behavior currently becomes weaker than in the past, which implies the oil futures market is less informative and/or less risk-averse in recent time period. Our forecasts based on these features perform very well under the predictive preferences that are consistent with the volatility-averse behavior in the oil futures market. We provide discussions and policy inferences.
ISSN:1062-9408
1879-0860
DOI:10.1016/j.najef.2018.10.009