Climate change impacts on potential solar energy production: A study case in Fukushima, Japan

• Published in: Renewable energy 2020-06, Vol.153, p.249-260
• Main Authors: Oka, Kazutaka, Mizutani, Wataru, Ashina, Shuichi
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Climate change; Climate scenario; Impact assessment; Photovoltaic energy; Renewable energy
• ISSN: 0960-1481; 1879-0682
• DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2020.01.126

To construct a long-term energy plan for renewable energies such as photovoltaics (PV), the influence of meteorological conditions on energy yield must be considered. It is necessary to understand how climate change impacts energy generation. For that purpose, a method to estimate PV energy generation considering climate change scenarios was developed. The developed method can estimate hourly generation amounts with spatial resolutions of 1-km mesh. It was applied to Fukushima Prefecture, located in the northeast region of Japan. To establish future scenarios three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) and seven Global Climate Models (GCM) were analyzed, and uncertainties caused by differences in future scenarios were investigated. The results show that annual generation of PV energy was estimated to increase on average by 1.7% in 2030, 3.9% in 2050, and 4.9% in 2070 due to climate change. Energy plans and adaptation actions are expected to be performed so the country is prepared for future impacts. •Climate change impacts on future PV energy generation in Japan were investigated.•Uncertainty of future climate change was evaluated using multiple GHG emission scenarios and GCMs.•Annual PV output increases on average by 1.7% in 2030, 3.9% in 2050, and 4.9% in 2070.