Global phosphorus cycling: The impact of international commercial trading and the path towards sustainable phosphorus management

• Published in: Resources policy 2023-08, Vol.85, p.103781, Article 103781
• Main Authors: Ng, Sin Jin, Li, Bing, He, Zhengyang, Han, Jing-Cheng, Munir, Muhammad Tajammal, Wu, Xiaofeng, Huang, Yuefei
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Global P cycle; Resource-oriented Dependency; Structural Decomposition Analysis (SDA); Substance Flow Analysis (SFA)
• ISSN: 0301-4207; 1873-7641
• DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.103781

Phosphorus is vital for global food production, but its use in commercial fertilizers has led to significant changes in the global P cycle. This has resulted in the depletion of phosphate rock deposits and increased eutrophication in lakes and oceans. While attempts have been made to quantify phosphorus flow at a country or regional level, there is still a lack of comprehensive understanding of how international commercial trading affects global phosphorus cycling over time. Through substance flow analysis, this research has found that the total global P flows through the five major P trade products have increased by around 5.4 Tg P between 2000 and 2019, with agricultural products trade having the fastest growth rate. The net P budget in the global trade of products changed among countries throughout these twenty years and relates to local natural resources and policies. Overall the global P flow has shifted from phosphate rock dominated structure to phosphate fertilizers and phosphoric acid dominated structure from 2000 to 2019, with centralized production reducing P resource losses during manufacturing. However, there are risks associated with P redistribution, including P resource shortages in certain countries/regions (e.g. Japan) and P pollutant accumulations in others (e.g. Brazil). These results highlight the importance of trade on the global phosphorus cycle and the need for both consuming and supplying countries/regions to work together to propose effective solutions for sustainable management of P in the future. •The effect of international trade on global P cycling was quantified.•Changes and drivers of P trade evolution over time were identified.•Role and risk of countries/regions in global P trade were clarified.