Augmented first-order reliability method for estimating fuzzy failure probabilities

• Published in: Structural safety 2023-11, Vol.105, p.102380, Article 102380
• Main Authors: Valdebenito, Marcos A., Yuan, Xiukai, Faes, Matthias G.R.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Augmented reliability problem; First-order reliability method; Fuzzy failure probability
• ISSN: 0167-4730; 1879-3355
• DOI: 10.1016/j.strusafe.2023.102380

This paper presents an approach for estimating the fuzzy failure probability associated with reliability problems where uncertainty is characterized through random variables whose distribution parameters are described as fuzzy variables. The main contribution of this work is addressing such problem with the First-Order Reliability Method, with some minor modifications. The epistemic uncertainty is addressed by resorting to an augmented reliability problem. In this way, a single reliability analysis suffices for estimating the membership function associated with the fuzzy failure probability. Numerical results suggest that the proposed approach is most useful for providing an estimate of the membership function associated with the failure probability with reduced numerical costs. •Focus on calculation of fuzzy failure probabilities.•Augmented reliability problem allows accounting for epistemic uncertainty.•First-Order Reliability Method is applied to solve augmented problem.•Single reliability analysis suffices for approximating membership function.