Can Cattle Basis Forecasts Be Improved? A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach

Basis forecasting is important for producers and consumers of agricultural commodities in their risk management decisions. However, the best performing forecasting model found in previous studies varies substantially. Given this inconsistency, we take a Bayesian approach, which addresses model uncer...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of agricultural and applied economics 2019-05, Vol.51 (2), p.249-266
Main Authors: Payne, Nicholas D., Karali, Berna, Dorfman, Jeffrey H.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Agricultural commodities
Agricultural economics
Agricultural management
Bayesian analysis
Cattle
Commodities
Economic models
Forecasting
Futures
Mathematical models
Parameter estimation
Prices
Regression analysis
Risk management
Soybeans
Studies
Supply & demand
Time series
Transportation costs
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