THE ECONOMICS OF WALKING ABOUT AND PREDICTING UNEMPLOYMENT IN THE USA

We show consumer expectations indices from the Conference Board and the University of Michigan predict unemployment upticks in the USA up to 18 months in advance, both at national and at state level. These data predict six of the last six recessions called by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:National Institute economic review 2024, Vol.270, p.1-24
Main Authors: Blanchflower, David G., Bryson, Alex
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Business cycles
Economic conditions
Economic statistics
Economic trends
Employment
Expectations
GDP
Great Recession
Gross Domestic Product
Recessions
Revisions
Unemployment
Walking
Wide area networks
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