Population and Cultural Disasters Caused by Sea Level Rise Based on Regression Model

• Published in: Journal of physics. Conference series 2020-08, Vol.1616 (1), p.12081
• Main Authors: Wang, Jiapan, Gao, Yi, Lin, Haoqi
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Air pollution; Cultural heritage; Cultural resources; Culture; Greenhouse effect; Greenhouse gases; Islands; Physics; Regression models; Sea level; Sea level rise; Spherical caps
• ISSN: 1742-6588; 1742-6596
• DOI: 10.1088/1742-6596/1616/1/012081

With the worsening environment, more people become EDPs since their homeland become inhabitable. Leaving the place they once called home, their rights may not be guaranteed. Meanwhile, their unique culture are also facing the edge of extinction. To determine the scope of the issue, we discuss the number of people at risk and specify the cultural loss. When predicting EDP population, we start by using the regression model to predict the trend of sea level rise due to the greenhouse effect and find out by 2120, the world's average sea level will probably rise by 60mm. Considering the effect of greenhouse gas makes this model more persuasive than if we only use sea level data to predict. Then, we build a spherical cap model to resemble to geographical features of tropical islands. It greatly simplifies the complexity of island topography and extends our prospective from a few islands to the whole world. With the help of the spherical cap model, on conservative estimate, the current number of EDP is about 67 million; by 2050, the potential EDPs will reach 130 million and over 400,000 square kilometers of land will be submerged. In the aspect of culture, with island residents becoming refugees, the potential lost of religious rituals, folk stories, traditional techniques, intangible arts and unique languages lead to the huge loss of cultural heritage.