Budget Revenue Forecasts, Errors and Impact on the Indebtedness of the Municipalities of Maranhão

• Published in: New Challenges in Accounting and Finance 2020-12, Vol.4, p.41-57
• Main Authors: Cesar Pereira de Assuncao, Paulo, Eudes Bezerra Filho, João
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• ISSN: 2717-8722; 2717-8722
• DOI: 10.32038/NCAF.2020.04.04

This study aimed to identify the factors that lead to the indebtedness of the municipalities of Maranhão. The study covers the years 2014-2016. Economic methods with panel data and socioeconomic variables were used: municipal GDP per capita, FIRJAN tax management index (IFGF), and level of education of the public manager. In the results, it was possible to observe that the budget revenue forecast error positively affects the 1% level of debt significance in the year, which means implications for one unit of Real (BRL) of budget revenue, incorrectly predicted in the LOAs of the municipalities Maranhão, leads to an increase between BRL 0.49 and BRL 0.62, in the debt of the relevant financial year. As variables such as GDP per capita, the IFGF and the dummies and the level of education were not statistically significant to explain the increase in debt, allowing to deduce the forecast error (planning) of budget revenue by itself, it is an important determinant that contributes, with high statistical significance, which impacts on the increase of the indebtedness of the municipalities of Maranhão.