Uncertainty in recent near-surface wind speed trends: a global reanalysis intercomparison

Reanalysis products have become a tool for wind energy users requiring information about the wind speed long-term variability. These users are sensitive to many aspects of the observational references they employ to estimate the wind resource, such as the mean wind, its seasonality and long-term tre...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Environmental research letters 2017-11, Vol.12 (11), p.114019
Main Authors: Torralba, Verónica, Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J, Gonzalez-Reviriego, Nube
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Energia eòlica
Energies
ERA-Interim
JRA-55
MERRA-2
Seasonal variations
Surface wind
Trends
Wind energy
Wind power
Wind speed
Wind speed variability
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC
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Summary:Reanalysis products have become a tool for wind energy users requiring information about the wind speed long-term variability. These users are sensitive to many aspects of the observational references they employ to estimate the wind resource, such as the mean wind, its seasonality and long-term trends. However, the assessment of the ability of atmospheric reanalyses to reproduce wind speed trends has not been undertaken yet. The wind speed trends have been estimated using the ERA-Interim reanalysis (ERA-I), the second version of the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2) and the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) for the period 1980-2015. These trends show a strong spatial and seasonal variability with an overall increase of the wind speed over the ocean and a tendency to a decline over land, although important disagreements between the different reanalyses have been found. In particular, the JRA-55 reanalysis produces more intense trends over land than ERA-I and MERRA-2. This can be linked to the negative bias affecting the JRA-55 near-surface wind speeds over land. In all the reanalyses high wind speeds tend to change faster than both low and average wind speeds. The agreement of the wind speed trends at 850 hPa with those found close to the surface suggests that the main driver of the wind speed trends are the changes in large-scale circulation.
ISSN:1748-9326
1748-9326
DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/aa8a58