Examining the role of environmental memory in the predictability of carbon and water fluxes across Australian ecosystems

The vegetation's response to climate change is a significant source of uncertainty in future terrestrial biosphere model projections. Constraining climate-carbon cycle feedbacks requires improving our understanding of both the immediate and long-term plant physiological responses to climate. In...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Biogeosciences 2022-04, Vol.19 (7), p.1913-1932
Main Authors: Cranko Page, Jon, De Kauwe, Martin G, Abramowitz, Gab, Cleverly, Jamie, Hinko-Najera, Nina, Hovenden, Mark J, Liu, Yao, Pitman, Andy J, Ogle, Kiona
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Analysis
Bayesian analysis
Bayesian theory
Biosphere
Biosphere models
Carbon
Carbon cycle
Carbon cycle (Biogeochemistry)
Climate and vegetation
Climate change
Climate models
Climate prediction
Climatic changes
Climatic extremes
Cluster analysis
Clustering
Drought
Ecosystems
Eddy covariance
Extreme weather
Grasslands
Heat flux
Heat transfer
Heat waves
Heatwaves
Latent heat
Latent heat flux
Mathematical models
Modelling
Moisture content
Physiological aspects
Physiological responses
Plant water
Precipitation
Probability theory
Productivity
Rain
Rain and rainfall
Rainfall
Respiration
Terrestrial environments
Vector quantization
Vegetation
Vegetation type
Water
Water availability
Water content
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Summary:The vegetation's response to climate change is a significant source of uncertainty in future terrestrial biosphere model projections. Constraining climate-carbon cycle feedbacks requires improving our understanding of both the immediate and long-term plant physiological responses to climate. In particular, the timescales and strength of memory effects arising from both extreme events (i.e. droughts and heatwaves) and structural lags in the systems (such as delays between rainfall and peak plant water content or between a precipitation deficit and down-regulation of productivity) have largely been overlooked in the development of terrestrial biosphere models. This is despite the knowledge that plant responses to climatic drivers occur across multiple timescales (seconds to decades), with the impact of climate extremes resonating for many years.
ISSN:1726-4189
1726-4170
1726-4189
DOI:10.5194/bg-19-1913-2022