The role of Arctic sea ice loss in the interdecadal trends of the East Asian summer monsoon in a warming climate

The East Asian summer monsoon precipitation has exhibited a well-known “southern China flood and northern China drought” pattern in recent decades. The increase in aerosols and warming oceans are recognized as two important forcings that control of the precipitation trends over East Asian land. Howe...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:NPJ climate and atmospheric science 2024-07, Vol.7 (1), p.174-14, Article 174
Main Authors: Zhang, Xiaoqi, He, Bian, Bao, Qing, Liu, Yimin, Wu, Guoxiong, Duan, Anmin, Hu, Wenting, Sheng, Chen, Rao, Jian
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
704/106/35/823
704/106/694/1108
Amplification
Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution
Atmospheric Sciences
Climate
Climate change
Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts
Climatology
Drought
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Global warming
Monsoons
Ocean temperature
Ocean warming
Oceans
Pattern recognition
Planetary waves
Precipitation
Sea ice
Sea surface temperature
Summer
Trends
Wave propagation
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Summary:The East Asian summer monsoon precipitation has exhibited a well-known “southern China flood and northern China drought” pattern in recent decades. The increase in aerosols and warming oceans are recognized as two important forcings that control of the precipitation trends over East Asian land. However, in this study, by using large ensemble simulations from the CMIP6 Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP), the influence of Arctic amplification, serving as the prominent feature of global warming, is very important in modulating the East Asian summer precipitation pattern, which is comparable to the influence of sea surface temperature (SST). Additionally, the observed “southern China flood and northern China drought” pattern only exists in July and August, whereas a triple pattern with the precipitation positive anomaly center over Middle China occurs in June. These patterns are closely connected with the regional differences in Arctic sea ice loss from June to July, affected through both the Rossby waves propagating in a weaker westerly jet and the decrease in the large-scale meridional thermal contrast in a warming climate.
ISSN:2397-3722
2397-3722
DOI:10.1038/s41612-024-00717-y