A new scoring system to predict fatal accidents in General Aviation and to facilitate emergency control centre response

Numerous accidents occur with General Aviation aircraft every year. To date, pre-emptive prediction of survival or death is impossible. The current study aims to identify significant factors elementary to predict survival after General Aviation (GA) aircraft accidents. The Implementation of a scorin...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Scientific reports 2024-11, Vol.14 (1), p.27969-10, Article 27969
Main Authors: Hinkelbein, Jochen, Hippler, Catherina, Liebold, Felix, Schmitz, Jan, Rothschild, Markus, Schick, Volker
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
692/499
692/700
Accident investigations
Accidents
Accidents, Aviation - mortality
Accidents, Aviation - statistics & numerical data
Aircraft
Artificial intelligence
Aviation
Emergency preparedness
Flight accidents
General Aviation
Germany
Humanities and Social Sciences
Humans
Landing behavior
Logistic Models
multidisciplinary
Regression analysis
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
Scoring system
Survival
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Summary:Numerous accidents occur with General Aviation aircraft every year. To date, pre-emptive prediction of survival or death is impossible. The current study aims to identify significant factors elementary to predict survival after General Aviation (GA) aircraft accidents. The Implementation of a scoring system, including these factors, may facilitate emergency control centre response. Data of flight accidents over a 20-year period (extracted from the German Federal Bureau of Aircraft Accident Investigation [BFU]) was analysed for fixed-wing motorized small aircrafts below 5,700 kg MTOW. Factors of interest were analysed using Chi 2 - and Mann–Whitney-U-Tests. Logistic regression was used to establish a score to calculate the probability of a fatal outcome after an aircraft accident. The BFU lists 1,595 GA aircraft accidents between 2000 and 2019. The factors “third quarter of the year” (p = 0.04), “last quarter of the year” (p = 0.002), “fire” (p  10 km” (p 
ISSN:2045-2322
2045-2322
DOI:10.1038/s41598-024-77994-3