Forecast of peak attainment and imminent decline after 2017 of oral cancer incidence in men in Taiwan

Oral cancer is the fourth most common cancer among men in Taiwan. The age-standardized incidence rate of oral cancer among men in Taiwan has increased since 1980 and became six times greater in 2014. To enable effective public health planning for oral cancer, research on the projection of oral cance...

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Published in:Scientific reports 2022-04, Vol.12 (1), p.5726-5726, Article 5726
Main Authors: Jhuang, Jing-Rong, Su, Shih-Yung, Chiang, Chun-Ju, Yang, Ya-Wen, Lin, Li-Ju, Hsu, Tsui-Hsia, Lee, Wen-Chung
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
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692/4028
692/699
Adult
Age
Cancer research
Cohort Studies
Forecasting
Health planning
Humanities and Social Sciences
Humans
Incidence
Male
Mouth Neoplasms - epidemiology
Mouth Neoplasms - etiology
multidisciplinary
Oral cancer
Public health
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
Taiwan - epidemiology
Trends
United States
Young Adult
Young adults
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Summary:Oral cancer is the fourth most common cancer among men in Taiwan. The age-standardized incidence rate of oral cancer among men in Taiwan has increased since 1980 and became six times greater in 2014. To enable effective public health planning for oral cancer, research on the projection of oral cancer burden is essential. We conducted an age-period-cohort analysis on the incidence of oral cancer among men in Taiwan from 1997 to 2017 and extrapolated the trend to 2025. We found that the period trends for young adults aged between 25 and 44 have already peaked before 2017; the younger, the earlier, and then the trends declined. The cohort trends have peaked roughly at the 1972 birth cohort and then declined for all ages. Despite the increasing trend in the age-standardized incidence rate for oral cancer among men in Taiwan from 1997 to 2017, we forecast a peak attained, an imminent decline after 2017, and a decrease of 8.4% in age-standardized incidence rate from 2017 to 2025. The findings of this study contribute to developing efficient and comprehensive strategies for oral cancer prevention and control.
ISSN:2045-2322
2045-2322
DOI:10.1038/s41598-022-09736-2