Widespread mismatch between satellite observed vegetation greenness and temperature isolines during 2000–2020 in China

• Published in: Ecological indicators 2023-03, Vol.147, p.110018, Article 110018
• Main Authors: Zhang, Pengyi, Zhang, Pengchao, Li, Zhouyuan, Ma, Tianming, Ma, Tianxiao
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Anthropogenic effects; Climate warming; Latitudinal shift; Vegetation greenness; Velocity
• ISSN: 1470-160X; 1872-7034
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.110018

[Display omitted] •A framework was developed to quantify temperature-greenness mismatch at large scale.•Most greenness isolines lag behind or move inversely to the temperature isolines.•The temperature-greenness mismatch was more pervasive in forests than in grass.•Human activity played an important role in temperature-greenness mismatch of China. Warming is projected to increase the greenness of vegetation and lead to geographic shifts in vegetation isolines across China. However, it is unclear whether the shift of greenness isolines can keep pace with that of temperature isolines because vegetation activity is always limited by resource availability and relatively slow acclimation mechanisms. In addition, how natural and anthropogenic factors affect this mismatch is poorly understood. Based on remote sensing observations over the last two decades (2000–2020), we systematically evaluated how vegetation greenness shifts respond to warming trends in China. The result showed a widespread mismatch between temperature and greenness. 74 % of the area showed isolines of greenness lag behind or move in the opposite direction to the isolines of temperature. We also found the temperature-greenness mismatch is strongly determined by elevation, slope, vegetation type, and human activity. The magnitude of the mismatch decreased inversely with slope and elevation but increased when human activity increased. The mean magnitude of mismatch between temperature and greenness in velocity was the greatest for deciduous forest (0.45 km/year), followed by grass, shrubs, and evergreen forest. This systematic analysis of the temperature-greenness mismatch has important implications for the sustainable management of vegetation under climate change. Our study underscored the importance of understanding the role of topography, vegetation, and human activity when studying the temperature-greenness mismatch.