Colorado River water supply is predictable on multi-year timescales owing to long-term ocean memory

Skillful multi-year climate forecasts provide crucial information for decision-makers and resource managers to mitigate water scarcity, yet such forecasts remain challenging due to unpredictable weather noise and the lack of dynamical model capability. Here we demonstrate that the annual water suppl...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Communications earth & environment 2020-10, Vol.1 (1), p.1-11, Article 26
Main Authors: Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu, Wang, S.-Y. Simon, Yost, Matt, Yocom, Larissa, Gillies, Robert R.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
704/106/242
704/106/35/823
704/106/829/2737
Anomalies
Climate models
Climate prediction
Crop yield
Decision making
Dynamic models
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Environment
Oceans
River basins
Rivers
Sea surface temperature
Water scarcity
Water shortages
Water supply
Wildfires
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Summary:Skillful multi-year climate forecasts provide crucial information for decision-makers and resource managers to mitigate water scarcity, yet such forecasts remain challenging due to unpredictable weather noise and the lack of dynamical model capability. Here we demonstrate that the annual water supply of the Colorado River is predictable up to several years in advance by a drift-free decadal climate prediction system using a fully coupled climate model. Observational analyses and model experiments show that prolonged shortages of water supply in the Colorado River are significantly linked to sea surface temperature precursors including tropical Pacific cooling, North Pacific warming, and southern tropical Atlantic warming. In the Colorado River basin, the water deficits can reduce crop yield and increase wildfire potential. Thus, a multi-year prediction of severe water shortages in the Colorado River basin could be useful as an early indicator of subsequent agricultural loss and wildfire risk. Sea surface temperature anomalies in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans can help predict water shortages in the Colorado River basin, according to analyses of decadal climate predictions and observations.
ISSN:2662-4435
2662-4435
DOI:10.1038/s43247-020-00027-0