Societal breakdown as an emergent property of large-scale behavioural models of land use change

Human land use has placed enormous pressure on natural resources and ecosystems worldwide and may even prompt socio-ecological collapses under some circumstances. Efforts to avoid such collapses are hampered by a lack of knowledge about when they may occur and how they may be prevented. Computationa...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Earth system dynamics 2019-12, Vol.10 (4), p.809-845
Main Authors: Brown, Calum, Seo, Bumsuk, Rounsevell, Mark
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Analysis
Aversion
Behavioural responses
Breakdown
Calibration
Climate change
Collapse
Computer applications
Computer simulation
Decision making
Dynamics
Economic aspects
Economics
Ecosystems
Environmental changes
Food production
Futures
Heterogeneity
Human behavior
Land development
Land management
Land use
Land use controls
Land use planning
Mathematical models
Natural resources
Optimization
Social aspects
Social factors
Socioeconomic aspects
Socioeconomic factors
Socioeconomics
Systems stability
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Summary:Human land use has placed enormous pressure on natural resources and ecosystems worldwide and may even prompt socio-ecological collapses under some circumstances. Efforts to avoid such collapses are hampered by a lack of knowledge about when they may occur and how they may be prevented. Computational models that illuminate potential future developments in the land system are invaluable tools in this context. While such models are widely used to project biophysical changes, they are currently less able to explore the social dynamics that will be key aspects of future global change. As a result, strategies for navigating a hazardous future may suffer from "blind spots" at which individual, social and political behaviours divert the land system away from predicted pathways.
ISSN:2190-4987
2190-4979
2190-4987
DOI:10.5194/esd-10-809-2019