The weekly P25 of the age of the influenza-like illness shows a higher correlation with COVID-19 mortality than rapid tests and could predict the evolution of COVID-19 pandemics in sentinel surveillance, Piura, Perú, 2021

To describe the dynamics of syndromic surveillance of ILI cases in seasonal and COVID-19 pandemic scenarios. A descriptive study of the epidemiological behavior of ILI in the seasonal and COVID-19 pandemic scenarios. Of a sample of 16,231 cases of ILI from 2013 to 2021, the features of cases from 68...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:PloS one 2024-03, Vol.19 (3), p.e0295309-e0295309
Main Authors: Ocaña Gutiérrez, Víctor Raúl, González Ramírez, Rodolfo Arturo, Ocaña Aguilar, Víctor Alexander, Ocaña Aguilar, Nadia Gabriela, Holguín Mauricci, Carlos Enrique
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Adult
Aged
Biology and Life Sciences
Care and treatment
China
Comparative analysis
COVID-19 - diagnosis
COVID-19 - epidemiology
Diagnosis
Epidemiology
Forecasts and trends
Health aspects
Humans
Influenza
Influenza, Human - diagnosis
Influenza, Human - epidemiology
Medicine and Health Sciences
Mortality
Pandemics
Peru
Physical Sciences
Prognosis
Seasons
Sentinel Surveillance
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Summary:To describe the dynamics of syndromic surveillance of ILI cases in seasonal and COVID-19 pandemic scenarios. A descriptive study of the epidemiological behavior of ILI in the seasonal and COVID-19 pandemic scenarios. Of a sample of 16,231 cases of ILI from 2013 to 2021, the features of cases from 68 weeks before and during the pandemic were selected and compared; weekly endemic channels were built; data fluctuations on the trend of ILI cases were analyzed; and estimated weekly correlations between weekly P25 age, cases confirmed by rapid tests, and mortality from COVID-19. To analyze clinical-epidemiological and mortality data, Student's t test, Mann-Whitney U, Chi2, Spearman's Ro, polynomial, and multinomial regression with a 95% confidence interval were used. During the COVID-19 pandemic, those most affected with ILI were: adults and the elderly; higher median age; autochthonous cases predominated; a lower proportion of other syndromes; delays in seeking care; and a higher rate of pneumonia attack than in the seasonal period (p< 0.01). Rapid tests (serological and antigenic) confirmed 52.7% as COVID-19. Two ILI pandemic waves were seasonally consistent with confirmed COVID-19 cases and district mortality with robust correlation (p
ISSN:1932-6203
1932-6203
DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0295309