Forecasting the Ocean's Optical Environment Using the BioCast System

The Bio-Optical Forecasting (BioCast) system is a model that provides the US Navy with short-term forecasts of the ocean's optical environment. The forecasts are required to support a broad spectrum of naval operations, including mine countermeasure, anti-submarine, and expeditionary warfare op...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Oceanography (Washington, D.C.) D.C.), 2014-09, Vol.27 (3), p.68-79
Main Authors: JOLLIFF, JASON KEITH, LADNER, SHERWIN, CROUT, RICHARD, LYON, PAUL, MATULEWSKI, KENNETH, ARNONE, ROBERT A., LEWIS, DAVID
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
bio-optical forecasting
BioCast
Coasts
Employment forecasting
Forecasting models
Marine
naval operational support
Navies
ocean optics
Oceans
Optical properties
Phytoplankton
Sea water
Sensors
SPECIAL ISSUE ON NAVY OPERATIONAL MODELS
Statistical forecasts
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Description
Summary:The Bio-Optical Forecasting (BioCast) system is a model that provides the US Navy with short-term forecasts of the ocean's optical environment. The forecasts are required to support a broad spectrum of naval operations, including mine countermeasure, anti-submarine, and expeditionary warfare operations. The BioCast system works by treating any geo-referenced surface ocean optical property provided via the US Navy's satellite data processing systems as a prognostic state variable. BioCast will then ingest operational ocean model velocity forecasts and calculate the three-dimensional optical property (pseudo-tracer) transport. BioCast verification statistics generated via forecast comparison to "next-day" satellite images show superior performance over 24-hour persistence of composite satellite data. Future operational modifications to BioCast, such as complex internal transformation submodels, must demonstrate superior performance to the established benchmark metrics and/or persistence over the operational forecast time horizon. Future BioCast applications will expand to include an interface with three-dimensional system performance simulation techniques that will predict how specific US Navy sensors will perform in the ocean's optical environment.
ISSN:1042-8275
2377-617X
DOI:10.5670/oceanog.2014.69