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Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for the pre-treatment prediction of early metachronous metastasis in endemic nasopharyngeal carcinoma: a big-data intelligence platform-based analysis
Background: Early failure of cancer treatment generally indicates a poor prognosis. Here, we aim to develop and validate a pre-treatment nomogram to predict early metachronous metastasis (EMM) in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). Methods: From 2009 to 2015, a total of 9461 patients with NPC (training...
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Published in: | Therapeutic advances in medical oncology 2020, Vol.12, p.1758835920978132-1758835920978132 |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article |
Language: | English |
Subjects: | |
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Online Access: | Get full text |
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Summary: | Background:
Early failure of cancer treatment generally indicates a poor prognosis. Here, we aim to develop and validate a pre-treatment nomogram to predict early metachronous metastasis (EMM) in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC).
Methods:
From 2009 to 2015, a total of 9461 patients with NPC (training cohort: n = 7096; validation cohort: n = 2365) were identified from an institutional big-data research platform. EMM was defined as time to metastasis within 2 years after treatment. Early metachronous distant metastasis-free survival (EM-DMFS) was the primary endpoint. A nomogram was established with the significant prognostic factors for EM-DMFS determined by multivariate Cox regression analyses in the training cohort. The Harrell Concordance Index (C-index), area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC), and calibration curves were applied to evaluate this model.
Results:
EMM account for 73.5% of the total metachronous metastasis rate and is associated with poor long-term survival in NPC. The final nomogram, which included six clinical variables, achieved satisfactory discriminative performance and significantly outperformed the traditional tumor–node–metastasis (TNM) classification for predicting EM-DMFS: C-index: 0.721 versus 0.638, p |
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ISSN: | 1758-8359 1758-8340 1758-8359 |
DOI: | 10.1177/1758835920978132 |