Long-Term Passenger Flow Forecasting for Rail Transit Based on Complex Networks and Informer

With the continuous growth of urbanization, passenger flow in urban rail transit systems is steadily increasing, making accurate long-term forecasting essential for optimizing operational scheduling and enhancing service quality. However, passenger flow forecasting becomes increasingly complex due t...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Sensors (Basel, Switzerland) Switzerland), 2024-10, Vol.24 (21), p.6894
Main Authors: Li, Dekui, Du, Shubo, Hou, Yuru
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Accuracy
Comparative analysis
complex networks
Datasets
Deep learning
Efficiency
Forecasting
Holidays & special occasions
Informer model
Light rail transit
long-term passenger flow forecasting
Neural networks
Quality of service
Statistical methods
Time series
time series analysis
Trends
urban rail transit
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Summary:With the continuous growth of urbanization, passenger flow in urban rail transit systems is steadily increasing, making accurate long-term forecasting essential for optimizing operational scheduling and enhancing service quality. However, passenger flow forecasting becomes increasingly complex due to the intricate structure of rail transit networks and external factors such as seasonal variations. To address these challenges, this paper introduces an optimized Informer model for long-term forecasting that incorporates the influences of other stations based on complex network theory. Compared to the ARIMA, LSTM, and Transformer models, this optimized Informer model excels in processing large-scale complex transit data, particularly in terms of long-term forecasting accuracy and capturing network dependencies. The results demonstrate that this forecasting approach, which integrates complex network theory with the Informer model, significantly improves the accuracy and efficiency of long-term passenger flow predictions, providing robust decision support for urban rail transit planning and management.
ISSN:1424-8220
1424-8220
DOI:10.3390/s24216894