Fast‐Forward to Perturbed Equilibrium Climate

The equilibrium climate sensitivity, that is, the global‐mean surface‐air temperature change in response to a doubling of the carbon dioxide concentration is a widely used metric in climate change studies. Its exact value is rarely known because its estimation requires a long integration time of sev...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Geophysical research letters 2019-08, Vol.46 (15), p.8969-8975
Main Authors: Saint‐Martin, D., Geoffroy, O., Watson, L., Douville, H., Bellon, G., Voldoire, A., Cattiaux, J., Decharme, B., Ribes, A.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Air temperature
Carbon dioxide
Carbon dioxide concentration
Climate change
Climate models
Climate sensitivity
Climate studies
Computer applications
Energy balance
Equilibrium
Global temperatures
global warming
Integration
Ocean, Atmosphere
radiative forcing
Sciences of the Universe
Temperature changes
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Summary:The equilibrium climate sensitivity, that is, the global‐mean surface‐air temperature change in response to a doubling of the carbon dioxide concentration is a widely used metric in climate change studies. Its exact value is rarely known because its estimation requires a long integration time of several thousand years. We propose a method to estimate an accurate value of the equilibrium response from fully coupled climate models at a reasonable computational cost. Using this method, our state‐of‐the‐art climate model CNRM‐CM6‐1 reaches a stationary state after only few hundred of years of integration. This “Fast‐Forward” method consists of an optimal two‐step forcing pathway designed using the framework of a two‐layer energy balance model. It can be applied easily to any coupled climate model. Key Points A simple method for estimating the equilibrium climate sensitivity is proposed The method allows to simulate the stationary climate corresponding to any given radiative perturbation with a limited computational cost The method can be applied to any atmosphere‐ocean coupled climate model
ISSN:0094-8276
1944-8007
DOI:10.1029/2019GL083031