The effect of climate change on spring frosts and flowering of Crataegus laevigata – The indicator of the validity of the weather lore about “The Ice Saints”

• Published in: Ecological indicators 2022-12, Vol.145, p.109688, Article 109688
• Main Authors: Škvareninová, Jana, Lukasová, Veronika, Borsányi, Peter, Kvas, Andrej, Vido, Jaroslav, Štefková, Jaroslava, Škvarenina, Jaroslav
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: BBCH 60 – first flowers open; Central Europe; Continental climate; Frost; Hawthorn; Phenology; Weather lore
• ISSN: 1470-160X; 1872-7034
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2022.109688

[Display omitted] •The probability of occurrence of late frosts on at least one day of “The Ice Saints” remains high.•Flowering of hawthorn (Crataegus laevigata) significantly advanced by 3.6–6.2 days per decade from 1987 to 2016.•In the current climate, frosts during “The Ice Saints” are still dangerous to flowering hawthorn at most altitudes. The onset and duration of phenological events are key indicators of the ecological impact of climate change on vegetation. During the flowering time in spring, late frosts are one of the most dangerous meteorological phenomena leading to damage to crops. During 1987–2016, we analyzed the occurrence and intensity of frosts during the period around the weather lore “Frost on the Ice Saints burns all the flowers” in short, “The Ice Saints” and their effects on the flowering phenology of hawthorn (Crataegus laevigata (Poir.) DC.). The late frosts were identified at 0.05 m and2.0 m above ground from temperature measurement data at five phenological stations located from 160 m to 700 m a.s.l. in Slovakia. Results indicate that recent climate change caused the beginning of flowering (BBCH60) for Crataegus laevigata to start significantly earlier by 4.2, 5.0, 6.2 and 3.6 days per decade at 160, 300, 400 and 500 m a.s.l., respectively. Thus, the risk of late frost damage to flowers during “The Ice Saints” is getting highly probable, particularly at 160, 300 and 500 m a.s.l., where the flowering and frosts occur simultaneously. Decreased risk of frost damage during “The Ice Saints” was found at 400 and 700 m a.s.l. It was because of the rare frost occurrence at 400 m a.s.l. in the last decade (2007–2016) of the studied period, and due to the flowering onset dated mostly after “The Ice Saints” at 700 m a.s.l. in the same period.