Predicting impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of two interacting species in the forests of western Iran

• Published in: Meteorological applications 2020-01, Vol.27 (1), p.n/a
• Main Authors: Malekian, Mansoureh, Sadeghi, Maedeh
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Area; Climate change; Climate change scenarios; Climate prediction; Conservation; Distribution; Entropy; Environmental conditions; Environmental degradation; Environmental impact; Forecasting; Geographical distribution; habitat suitability; Habitats; Impact prediction; Maximum entropy; Niches; Persian oak; Persian squirrel; Species; species distribution models; Squirrels; Survival
• ISSN: 1350-4827; 1469-8080
• DOI: 10.1002/met.1800

Predicting the distribution of suitable habitats for species under climate change is essential for conservation planning. In the past three decades, the number of Persian squirrels (Sciurus anomalus) and the area covered by the Persian oak (Quercus brantii) have decreased due to various factors such as habitat degradation. Habitat suitability of the above interacting species was assessed under the current conditions and future (2050) climate change scenarios in western Iran, using a maximum entropy model (MaxEnt). The model performed well with an average area under the curve of above 0.9 for the two species. Precipitation in winter was the factor that contributed most to habitat suitability of both species. The MaxEnt projection for the year 2050 revealed a reduction in the area of suitable habitats for both species. Based on the outputs from the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Coupled Model (HadCM) scenarios, the fundamental niche (the range of environmental conditions in which the species can survive) of the Persian squirrel will reduce by between 0.12 and 1.1%. However, under the Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques Coupled Model scenarios, small gains in potential habitats may be observed. The area of suitable habitats for the oak was reduced under all scenarios except HadCM (representative concentration pathway 2.6). The results showed that the loss of suitable habitats for both species was more evident in the northern part of the range where the best habitats currently exist. In contrast, small gains in suitable habitats may be observed in the southern and eastern part of the range. Predicting the distribution of suitable habitats for species under climate change is essential for planning conservation strategies. The Persian squirrel is a poorly known species in the Middle East which is distributed in oak‐dominated forests of western Iran. It might not be immediately obvious what a bushy‐tailed rodent living in the forests of Iran can tell us about climate impacts. However, our results show the loss of suitable habitats for both species. Our results can help to identify priority areas for the long term conservation of species and should be used to inform adaptive conservation management in the face of future climate change.