Modeling the dynamics of COVID-19 with real data from Thailand

In recent years, COVID-19 has evolved into many variants, posing new challenges for disease control and prevention. The Omicron variant, in particular, has been found to be highly contagious. In this study, we constructed and analyzed a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission that incorporates v...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Scientific reports 2023-08, Vol.13 (1), p.13082-13082, Article 13082
Main Authors: Ibrahim, Alhassan, Humphries, Usa Wannasingha, Ngiamsunthorn, Parinya Sa, Baba, Isa Abdullahi, Qureshi, Sania, Khan, Amir
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
639/705/1041
639/705/1046
Asymptomatic
Computer Simulation
COVID-19
COVID-19 - epidemiology
COVID-19 - prevention & control
COVID-19 vaccines
Disease control
Disease transmission
Humanities and Social Sciences
Humans
Immunization
Mathematical Concepts
Mathematical models
Models, Biological
multidisciplinary
SARS-CoV-2
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
Thailand - epidemiology
Vaccination
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Summary:In recent years, COVID-19 has evolved into many variants, posing new challenges for disease control and prevention. The Omicron variant, in particular, has been found to be highly contagious. In this study, we constructed and analyzed a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission that incorporates vaccination and three different compartments of the infected population: asymptomatic ( I a ) , symptomatic ( I s ) , and Omicron ( I m ) . The model is formulated in the Caputo sense, which allows for fractional derivatives that capture the memory effects of the disease dynamics. We proved the existence and uniqueness of the solution of the model, obtained the effective reproduction number, showed that the model exhibits both endemic and disease-free equilibrium points, and showed that backward bifurcation can occur. Furthermore, we documented the effects of asymptomatic infected individuals on the disease transmission. We validated the model using real data from Thailand and found that vaccination alone is insufficient to completely eradicate the disease. We also found that Thailand must monitor asymptomatic individuals through stringent testing to halt and subsequently eradicate the disease. Our study provides novel insights into the behavior and impact of the Omicron variant and suggests possible strategies to mitigate its spread.
ISSN:2045-2322
2045-2322
DOI:10.1038/s41598-023-39798-9