Transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in England

• Published in: International journal of infectious diseases 2021-03, Vol.104, p.132-138
• Main Authors: Liu, Yang, Tang, Julian W., Lam, Tommy T.Y.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Basic Reproduction Number; Bayes Theorem; COVID-19; COVID-19 - epidemiology; COVID-19 - prevention & control; COVID-19 - transmission; COVID-19 - virology; Effective reproduction number; England - epidemiology; Female; Forecasting; Humans; Incidence; Male; Models, Theoretical; Pandemic; Pandemics; SARS-CoV-2 - genetics; SARS-CoV-2 - isolation & purification; Susceptible–exposed–infected–removed (SEIR)
• ISSN: 1201-9712; 1878-3511
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.12.055

•A Bayesian susceptible–exposed–infected–removed model was used to infer the transmission dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019 in nine regions of England.•The basic reproduction number for each region was estimated and found to be significantly correlated with the population size of each region.•The temporally varying effective reproduction number was estimated; this showed that the control measures were effective.•Based on data prior to June 2020, the model predicted that several regions have the possibility to experience a second wave of outbreaks. The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused a tremendous health burden and impact on the world economy. The UK Government implemented the biggest lockdown of society during peacetime in British history at the end of March 2020, aiming to contain the rapid spread of the virus. The UK lockdown was maintained for 7 weeks, but the effectiveness of the control measures in suppressing disease transmission remains incompletely understood. A Bayesian SEIR (susceptible–exposed–infected–removed) epidemiological model was used to rebuild the local transmission dynamics of the spread of COVID-19 in nine regions of England. The basic reproduction number (R0) in England was found to be relatively high compared with China. The estimate of the temporally varying effective reproduction number (Rt) suggests that the control measures, especially the forced lockdown, were effective to reduce transmissibility and curb the COVID-19 epidemic. Although the overall incidence rate in the UK has declined, forecasting highlights the possibility of a second epidemic wave in several regions. This study enhances understanding of the current outbreak and the effectiveness of control measures in the UK.