Global consumption and international trade in deforestation-associated commodities could influence malaria risk

• Published in: Nature communications 2020-03, Vol.11 (1), p.1258-10, Article 1258
• Main Authors: Chaves, Leonardo Suveges Moreira, Fry, Jacob, Malik, Arunima, Geschke, Arne, Sallum, Maria Anice Mureb, Lenzen, Manfred
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: 631/158/1469; 631/158/843; 692/499; Agriculture - statistics & numerical data; Agriculture - trends; Cocoa; Coffee; Commerce; Commodities; Conservation of Natural Resources - statistics & numerical data; Conservation of Natural Resources - trends; Consumption; Cotton; Deforestation; Developed countries; Developing countries; Disease hot spots; Disease transmission; Ecology; Economics; Environmental Monitoring; Forest management; Forests; Geography; Health risks; Humanities and Social Sciences; Humans; International trade; Internationality; LDCs; Malaria; Malaria - epidemiology; Malaria - transmission; Models, Theoretical; multidisciplinary; Policy; Risk; Risk Factors; Science; Science (multidisciplinary); Timber; Tobacco; Trees; Vector-borne diseases; Wood; Wood products
• ISSN: 2041-1723; 2041-1723
• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-14954-1

Deforestation can increase the transmission of malaria. Here, we build upon the existing link between malaria risk and deforestation by investigating how the global demand for commodities that increase deforestation can also increase malaria risk. We use a database of trade relationships to link the consumption of deforestation-implicated commodities in developed countries to estimates of country-level malaria risk in developing countries. We estimate that about 20% of the malaria risk in deforestation hotspots is driven by the international trade of deforestation-implicated export commodities, such as timber, wood products, tobacco, cocoa, coffee and cotton. By linking malaria risk to final consumers of commodities, we contribute information to support demand-side policy measures to complement existing malaria control interventions, with co-benefits for reducing deforestation and forest disturbance. Because many primary commodities cause deforestation and deforestation can increase malaria transmission, international trade can thus indirectly influence malaria risk. Here the authors use trade databases for commodites associated with deforestation to demonstrate that consumption of such commodities in developed nations could increase malaria risk in developing nations.