A COVID-19 mortality prediction model for Korean patients using nationwide Korean disease control and prevention agency database

The experience of the early nationwide COVID-19 pandemic in South Korea led to an early shortage of medical resources. For efficient resource allocation, accurate prediction of the prognosis or mortality of confirmed patients is essential. Therefore, the aim of this study was to develop an accurate...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Scientific reports 2022-02, Vol.12 (1), p.3311-3311, Article 3311
Main Authors: Jee, Yongho, Kim, Yi-Jun, Oh, Jongmin, Kim, Young-Ju, Ha, Eun-Hee, Jo, Inho
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
692/308
692/308/174
Adolescent
Adult
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Child
Child, Preschool
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
COVID-19 - mortality
COVID-19 - prevention & control
COVID-19 - therapy
Databases, Factual
Dementia disorders
Diabetes mellitus
Disease control
Early experience
Epidemiology
Female
Hospitalization
Humanities and Social Sciences
Humans
Infant
Infant, Newborn
Intensive Care Units
Male
Middle Aged
Models, Biological
Mortality
multidisciplinary
Pandemics
Patients
Prediction models
Prevention
Republic of Korea - epidemiology
Resource allocation
Risk factors
Risk groups
SARS-CoV-2
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:The experience of the early nationwide COVID-19 pandemic in South Korea led to an early shortage of medical resources. For efficient resource allocation, accurate prediction of the prognosis or mortality of confirmed patients is essential. Therefore, the aim of this study was to develop an accurate model for predicting COVID-19 mortality using epidemiolocal and clinical variables and for identifying a high-risk group of confirmed patients. Clinical and epidemiolocal variables of 4049 patients with confirmed COVID-19 between January 20, 2020 and April 30, 2020 collected by the Korean Disease Control and Prevention Agency were used. Among the 4049 total confirmed patients, 223 patients died, while 3826 patients were released from isolation. Patients who had the following risk factors showed significantly higher risk scores: age over 60 years, male sex, difficulty breathing, diabetes, cancer, dementia, change of consciousness, and hospitalization in the intensive care unit. High accuracy was shown for both the development set (n = 2467) and the validation set (n = 1582), with AUCs of 0.96 and 0.97, respectively. The prediction model developed in this study based on clinical features and epidemiological factors could be used for screening high-risk groups of patients and for evidence-based allocation of medical resources.
ISSN:2045-2322
2045-2322
DOI:10.1038/s41598-022-07051-4