Statistical and network analysis of 1212 COVID-19 patients in Henan, China

• Published in: International journal of infectious diseases 2020-06, Vol.95, p.391-398
• Main Authors: Wang, Pei, Lu, Jun-an, Jin, Yanyu, Zhu, Mengfan, Wang, Lingling, Chen, Shunjie
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Adult; Aggregate outbreak; Betacoronavirus; China - epidemiology; Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology; Coronavirus Infections - prevention & control; COVID-19; Female; Henan province; Humans; Incubation period; Male; Middle Aged; Network analysis; Pandemics - prevention & control; Pneumonia, Viral - epidemiology; Pneumonia, Viral - prevention & control; SARS-CoV-2; Time-phased nature of epidemic; Young Adult
• ISSN: 1201-9712; 1878-3511
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.04.051

•Almost all currently infected COVID-19 patients in Henan province were analyzed.•COVID-19 patients in Henan province show gender and age preferences, migrant workers or college students are at high risk.•The incubation period was statistically estimated.•The state transition diagram can reveal the time-phased nature of the COVID-19 epidemic.•Network analysis reveals the aggregate outbreak phenomena of COVID-19. COVID-19 is spreading quickly all over the world. Publicly released data for 1212 COVID-19 patients in Henan of China were analyzed in this paper. Various statistical and network analysis methods were employed. We found that COVID-19 patients show gender (55% vs 45%) and age (81% aged between 21 and 60) preferences; possible causes were explored. The estimated average, mode and median incubation periods are 7.4, 4 and 7 days. Incubation periods of 92% of patients were no more than 14 days. The epidemic in Henan has undergone three stages and has shown high correlations with the numbers of patients recently returned from Wuhan. Network analysis revealed that 208 cases were clustering infected, and various People's Hospitals are the main force in treating COVID-19. The incubation period was statistically estimated, and the proposed state transition diagram can explore the epidemic stages of emerging infectious disease. We suggest that although the quarantine measures are gradually working, strong measures still might be needed for a period of time, since ∼7.45% of patients may have very long incubation periods. Migrant workers or college students are at high risk. State transition diagrams can help us to recognize the time-phased nature of the epidemic. Our investigations have implications for the prevention and control of COVID-19 in other regions of the world.