Uncertain effectiveness of Miscanthus bioenergy expansion for climate change mitigation explored using land surface, agronomic and integrated assessment models

Large‐scale bioenergy plays a key role in climate change mitigation scenarios, but its efficacy is uncertain. This study aims to quantify that uncertainty by contrasting the results of three different types of models under the same mitigation scenario (RCP2.6‐SSP2), consistent with a 2°C temperature...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Global change biology. Bioenergy 2023-03, Vol.15 (3), p.303-318
Main Authors: Littleton, Emma W., Shepherd, Anita, Harper, Anna B., Hastings, Astley F. S., Vaughan, Naomi E., Doelman, Jonathan, Vuuren, Detlef P., Lenton, Timothy M.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Agricultural production
Agriculture
bioenergy
Biogeochemistry
Biomass
Biomass energy
Biomass energy production
Carbon
Carbon dioxide
Carbon sequestration
Climate
Climate change
Climate change mitigation
Climate models
crop modelling
Crops
DGVM
Drought
Dry matter
Effectiveness
Emissions
Energy crops
Environmental effects
Global warming
Greenhouse gases
Growth models
integrated assessment model
Land cover
Land use
Miscanthus
Phenology
Productivity
Renewable energy
Soils
Tropical environments
Uncertainty
Variables
Vegetation
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Summary:Large‐scale bioenergy plays a key role in climate change mitigation scenarios, but its efficacy is uncertain. This study aims to quantify that uncertainty by contrasting the results of three different types of models under the same mitigation scenario (RCP2.6‐SSP2), consistent with a 2°C temperature target. This analysis focuses on a single bioenergy feedstock, Miscanthus × giganteus, and contrasts projections for its yields and environmental effects from an integrated assessment model (IMAGE), a land surface and dynamic global vegetation model tailored to Miscanthus bioenergy (JULES) and a bioenergy crop model (MiscanFor). Under the present climate, JULES, IMAGE and MiscanFor capture the observed magnitude and variability in Miscanthus yields across Europe; yet in the tropics JULES and IMAGE predict high yields, whereas MiscanFor predicts widespread drought‐related diebacks. 2040–2049 projections show there is a rapid scale up of over 200 Mha bioenergy cropping area in the tropics. Resulting biomass yield ranges from 12 (MiscanFor) to 39 (JULES) Gt dry matter over that decade. Change in soil carbon ranges from +0.7 Pg C (MiscanFor) to −2.8 Pg C (JULES), depending on preceding land cover and soil carbon.2090–99 projections show large‐scale biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is projected in Europe. The models agree that
ISSN:1757-1693
1757-1707
DOI:10.1111/gcbb.12982