Future land carbon removals in China consistent with national inventory

• Published in: Nature communications 2024-11, Vol.15 (1), p.10426-10
• Main Authors: He, Yue, Piao, Shilong, Ciais, Philippe, Xu, Hao, Gasser, Thomas
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: 704/106/694; 704/47; Carbon dioxide; Carbon dioxide emissions; Carbon neutrality; Carbon sequestration; Carbon sinks; Emissions; Emissions control; Estimates; Humanities and Social Sciences; Land use; multidisciplinary; National forests; Science; Science (multidisciplinary)
• ISSN: 2041-1723; 2041-1723
• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-54846-2

China’s commitment to carbon neutrality by 2060 relies on the Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF) sector, with forestation targets designed to enhance carbon removal. However, the exact sequestration potential of these initiatives remains uncertain due to differing accounting conventions between national inventories and scientific assessments. Here, we reconcile both estimates and reassess LULUCF carbon fluxes up to 2100, using a spatially explicit bookkeeping model, state-of-the-art historical data, and national forestation targets. We simulate a carbon sink of −0.24 ± 0.03 Gt C yr −1 over 1994–2018 from past forestation efforts, aligned well with the national inventory. Should the official forestation targets be followed and extended, this could reach −0.35 ± 0.04 Gt C yr −1 in 2060, offsetting 43 ± 4% of anticipated residual fossil CO 2 emissions. Our findings confirm the key role of LULUCF in carbon sequestration, but its potential will decline if forestation efforts cease, highlighting the necessity for emission reductions in other sectors to achieve carbon neutrality. China’s 2060 carbon neutrality goal relies on forestation to enhance carbon removal. This study reconciles national and scientific LULUCF carbon flux estimates, projecting that continued forestation could offset 43% of CO 2 emissions by 2060.