Use of historical data to assess the impact of climate change and anthropogenic disturbance on the black-billed capercaillie (Tetrao urogalloides) in northeast China

• Published in: Global ecology and conservation 2020-06, Vol.22, p.e00972, Article e00972
• Main Authors: Zhang, Chao, Xia, Wancai, Luan, Xiaofeng, Zhuang, Hongfei, Khan, Tauheed Ullah, Zhang, Gong, Wu, Shuhong
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Anthropogenic disturbance; Climate change; Historical data; Range contraction; Tetrao urogalloides
• ISSN: 2351-9894; 2351-9894
• DOI: 10.1016/j.gecco.2020.e00972

Species distribution models have been widely used to assess changes in species distribution under climate change. However, these models often neglect anthropogenic drivers of range shifts or contractions, and general circulation models may introduce uncertainties. Therefore, quantifying the impacts of both climate change and anthropogenic disturbance on species distribution remains a challenge. Long-term historical data may overcome the uncertainties introduced by variability in global climate models and thus provide ecologists with comprehensive information on the long-term effects of anthropogenic disturbance. The black-billed capercaillie (Tetrao urogalloides) has undergone a dramatic population decline since the late 20th century and is endangered in China. We used ensemble forecasting to assess the impact of climate change and anthropogenic disturbance on the distribution of this species in northeast China from the 1970s to the 2000s. Our results suggested a decline in the predicted distribution area from 339,638 km2 in the 1970s to 219,083 km2 in the 2000s, representing a total reduction of 35.50%. We estimated that the range contraction caused by climate change equated to 22,038 km2, while that due to anthropogenic disturbance to 98,517 km2 over this time period. Therefore, the observed range contraction for this species is primarily attributable to anthropogenic disturbance.