Historical and future anthropogenic warming effects on droughts, fires and fire emissions of CO2 and PM2.5 in equatorial Asia when 2015-like El Niño events occur

In 2015, El Niño contributed to severe droughts in equatorial Asia (EA). The severe droughts enhanced fire activity in the dry season (June–November), leading to massive fire emissions of CO2 and aerosols. Based on large event attribution ensembles of the MIROC5 atmospheric global climate model, we...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Earth system dynamics 2020-05, Vol.11 (2), p.435-445
Main Authors: Shiogama, Hideo, Hirata, Ryuichi, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Ishizaki, Noriko N, Chatani, Satoru, Watanabe, Masahiro, Mitchell, Daniel, Lo, Y T Eunice
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Adaptation
Anthropogenic climate changes
Anthropogenic factors
Carbon dioxide
Carbon dioxide emissions
Climate and land use
Climate change
Climate change mitigation
Climate effects
Climate models
Climate policy
Computer simulation
Drought
Dry season
Drying
El Nino
El Nino events
El Nino phenomena
Emissions
Fires
Future climates
Global climate
Global climate models
Global warming
Land use
Mitigation
Paris Agreement
Particulate emissions
Particulate matter
Particulate matter emissions
Peatlands
Policies
Precipitation
Probability theory
Sea surface
Sea surface temperature
Sea surface temperature data
Simulation
Socioeconomic factors
Surface temperature
Suspended particulate matter
Temperature data
Trends
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Summary:In 2015, El Niño contributed to severe droughts in equatorial Asia (EA). The severe droughts enhanced fire activity in the dry season (June–November), leading to massive fire emissions of CO2 and aerosols. Based on large event attribution ensembles of the MIROC5 atmospheric global climate model, we suggest that historical anthropogenic warming increased the chances of meteorological droughts exceeding the 2015 observations in the EA area. We also investigate changes in drought in future climate simulations, in which prescribed sea surface temperature data have the same spatial patterns as the 2015 El Niño with long-term warming trends. Large probability increases of stronger droughts than the 2015 event are projected when events like the 2015 El Niño occur in the 1.5 and 2.0 ∘C warmed climate ensembles according to the Paris Agreement goals. Further drying is projected in the 3.0 ∘C ensemble according to the current mitigation policies of nations.We use observation-based empirical functions to estimate burned area, fireCO2 emissions and fine (
ISSN:2190-4979
2190-4987
DOI:10.5194/esd-11-435-2020