Improving methods for epidemiological control of canine visceral leishmaniasis based on a mathematical model. Impact on the incidence of the canine and human disease

The mathematical model described by Dye (1996) condemned the epidemiological canine visceral leishmaniasis control campaign, considering it non-efficient. Using this model, we mathematically demonstrate that the control is not efficient, only at low kappa values (rate at which latent and infectious...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências 2004-09, Vol.76 (3), p.583-593
Main Authors: Palatnik-de-Sousa, Clarisa B, Batista-de-Melo, Leopoldina M, Borja-Cabrera, Gulnara P, Palatnik, Marcos, Lavor, Carlile C
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Animals
Brazil - epidemiology
canine visceral leishmaniasis
controle epidemiológico
Dog Diseases - epidemiology
Dog Diseases - prevention & control
Dogs
epidemiological control
Fluorescent Antibody Technique
Humans
immunofluorescent assay
Incidence
Leishmaniasis, Visceral - epidemiology
Leishmaniasis, Visceral - prevention & control
Leishmaniasis, Visceral - veterinary
leishmaniose visceral canina
Models, Theoretical
Multidisciplinarias (Ciencias Sociales y Humanidades)
MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES
método de imunofluorescência
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Summary:The mathematical model described by Dye (1996) condemned the epidemiological canine visceral leishmaniasis control campaign, considering it non-efficient. Using this model, we mathematically demonstrate that the control is not efficient, only at low kappa values (rate at which latent and infectious dogs are lost by the destruction program) which match the canine seropositivity observed in the field by the immunofluorescency (IF) blood eluates analysis. With higher k values, corresponding to IF (kappa = 0.07) or ELISA (kappa = 0.25) results in sera samples, the number of infectious dogs declines to a Ro =1 or Ro =0, respectively, interrupting the transmission and the advancement of epidemics. We also experimentally demonstrate that the dog removal, following the results of IF of sera, instead of eluates lead to a 57% (p < 0.005) decrease in canine cases and 87.5% (p < 0.005) in human cases. Our mathematical and experimental results indicate that the control campaign become more efficient by enhancing the sensitivity of the diagnostic assay.
ISSN:0001-3765
1678-2690
0001-3765
1678-2690
DOI:10.1590/S0001-37652004000300012