High climate model dependency of Pliocene Antarctic ice-sheet predictions

The mid-Pliocene warm period provides a natural laboratory to investigate the long-term response of the Earth’s ice-sheets and sea level in a warmer-than-present-day world. Proxy data suggest that during the warm Pliocene, portions of the Antarctic ice-sheets, including West Antarctica could have be...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Nature communications 2018-07, Vol.9 (1), p.2799-12, Article 2799
Main Authors: Dolan, Aisling M., de Boer, Bas, Bernales, Jorge, Hill, Daniel J., Haywood, Alan M.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
704/106/125
704/106/413
Basins
Boundary conditions
Climate change
Climate models
Climatology
Dependence
Geology
Humanities and Social Sciences
Ice
multidisciplinary
Ocean basins
Pliocene
Polar environments
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
Sea level
Sheet modelling
Sheets
Simulation
Uncertainty
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:The mid-Pliocene warm period provides a natural laboratory to investigate the long-term response of the Earth’s ice-sheets and sea level in a warmer-than-present-day world. Proxy data suggest that during the warm Pliocene, portions of the Antarctic ice-sheets, including West Antarctica could have been lost. Ice-sheet modelling forced by Pliocene climate model outputs is an essential way to improve our understanding of ice-sheets during the Pliocene. However, uncertainty exists regarding the degree to which results are model-dependent. Using climatological forcing from an international climate modelling intercomparison project, we demonstrate the high dependency of Antarctic ice-sheet volume predictions on the climate model-based forcing used. In addition, the collapse of the vulnerable marine basins of Antarctica is dependent on the ice-sheet model used. These results demonstrate that great caution is required in order to avoid making unsound statements about the nature of the Pliocene Antarctic ice-sheet based on model results that do not account for structural uncertainty in both the climate and ice sheet models. Ice sheet models forced by climate model output indicate ice-sheet retreat during the Pliocene, yet concerns remain regarding potential model bias. Here, the authors present results from the Pliocene Ice-sheet Modelling Intercomparison Project, and show that results are highly dependent on the model forcing used.
ISSN:2041-1723
2041-1723
DOI:10.1038/s41467-018-05179-4