Predicting Climate Change Effects on the Potential Distribution of Two Invasive Cryptic Species of the Bemisia tabaci Species Complex in China

Middle East-Asia Minor 1 (MEAM1) and Mediterranean (MED) are two invasive cryptic species of the species complex (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae) that cause serious damage to agricultural and horticultural crops worldwide. To explore the possible impact of climate change on their distribution, the maximum e...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Insects (Basel, Switzerland) Switzerland), 2022-11, Vol.13 (12), p.1081
Main Authors: Xue, Yantao, Lin, Congtian, Wang, Yaozhuo, Liu, Wanxue, Wan, Fanghao, Zhang, Yibo, Ji, Liqiang
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
21st century
Agricultural production
Bemisia tabaci
biological invasion
Climate change
Climate effects
Climate prediction
Climatic conditions
Cryptic species
Dispersal
Divergence
Ecological effects
Entropy
Environmental impact
Geographical distribution
Habitats
Horticultural crops
Impact damage
Introduced species
Invasive species
MaxEnt
Maximum entropy
Precipitation
Regional development
Software
Trends
Variables
whitefly
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Summary:Middle East-Asia Minor 1 (MEAM1) and Mediterranean (MED) are two invasive cryptic species of the species complex (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae) that cause serious damage to agricultural and horticultural crops worldwide. To explore the possible impact of climate change on their distribution, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was used to predict the potential distribution ranges of MEAM1 and MED in China under current and four future climate scenarios, using shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), namely SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5, over four time periods (2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100). The distribution ranges of MEAM1 and MED were extensive and similar in China under current climatic conditions, while their moderately and highly suitable habitat ranges differed. Under future climate scenarios, the areas of suitable habitat of different levels for MEAM1 and MED were predicted to increase to different degrees. However, the predicted expansion of suitable habitats varied between them, suggesting that these invasive cryptic species respond differently to climate change. Our results illustrate the difference in the effects of climate change on the geographical distribution of different cryptic species of and provide insightful information for further forecasting and managing the two invasive cryptic species in China.
ISSN:2075-4450
2075-4450
DOI:10.3390/insects13121081